Recent Progress: Increase
In November 2020, the three jurisdictions (Maryland, Virginia, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission) formally adopted new female-specific reference points generated by the 2017 blue crab stock assessment update, which included more recent survey and harvest data. The threshold abundance of 70 million mature adult female crabs (age 1+) increased to 72.5 million, and the target abundance of 215 million adult females decreased to 196 million, based on the best available science.
Between 2020 and 2021, the abundance of adult (age 1+) female blue crabs in the Chesapeake Bay increased 12% from 141 million to 158 million. This number is above the new 72.5 million threshold which is considered to be the minimum sustainable level for female blue crabs in the Bay, but lower than the new target of 196 million. Blue crab populations exhibit natural variability due to their biology and environmental factors such as temperature, coastal currents, weather patterns, and predation. Blue crab abundance in the Chesapeake Bay is expected to exhibit annual fluctuations as a result of this natural variability, as seen in recent years.
Outlook: On Course
The adult female blue crab abundance has not fallen below the threshold since 2014, indicating that the population is sustainable. The Blue Crab Abundance Outcome is on course and is expected to be met by 2025.
Blue crabs support commercial and recreational fisheries across the region. The female-specific reference points associated with this outcome were recommended in the 2011 blue crab benchmark stock assessment and adopted by Maryland, Virginia and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission (PRFC) in 2012 and were updated at the 2017 blue crab benchmark stock assessment. Where annual adult female blue crab abundance falls in relation to these numbers informs management decisions for the blue crab fishery.
Since data collection began in 1990, the abundance of adult female blue crabs has peaked three times: first in 1991 when abundance reached 227 million, second in 2010 when abundance reached 246 million and third in 2017 when abundance reached a record-high 254 million. Since female-specific regulations were implemented in 2008, the average adult female blue crab abundance has doubled from the previous decade. The adult female blue crab abundance has not fallen below the threshold since 2014.
Anthropogenic activity—including harvest pressure and development that leads to the loss of fish and shellfish habitat—can affect blue crab populations. Environmental factors—including winter temperatures, coastal currents, weather patterns and natural predation—can also affect blue crab abundance. Water quality improvements, underwater grass restoration and proper harvest management will be critical to maintaining this valuable resource
To achieve this outcome, Chesapeake Bay Program partners have committed to:
- Planning and implementing a benchmark stock assessment; and
- Continuing to support the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee’s annual review of the status of the blue crab population.
Monitoring and assessing progress toward the outcome will occur through the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee’s (CBSAC) annual review of blue crab survey data and determination of population status relative to biological reference points. The continuation of the annual Bay-wide Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey will be essential in estimating the blue crab population and monitoring the stock.
As part of the Chesapeake Bay Program's partnership-wide implementation of adaptive management, progress toward this outcome was reviewed and discussed by the Management Board in November of 2021. It will be reviewed and discussed by the Management Board again in November 2023.
Logic & Action Plan
Participating partners have committed to taking specific actions to achieve the approaches identified in the management strategy above.
Completed actions from this outcome's Logic & Action Plan include:
- In December 2018, the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team determined that a benchmark blue crab stock assessment is not needed at this time. This decision was based on the fact that the recent stock assessment indicates the existing management framework is working.
The Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team leads the effort to achieve this outcome.
Participating partners include:
- Maryland Department of Natural Resources (State of Maryland)
- University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Chesapeake Biological Laboratory (State of Maryland)
- Old Dominion University (Commonwealth of Virginia)
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Commonwealth of Virginia)
- Virginia Marine Resources Commission (Commonwealth of Virginia)
- Potomac River Fisheries Commission
- Chesapeake Bay Commission
- National Marine Fisheries Service (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
- University of North Florida
Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia also engage commercial and recreational blue crab harvesters through committees and advisory groups, which include the Maryland Blue Crab Industry Advisory Committee, Blue Crab Industry Design Team, Sport Fisheries Advisory Commission and Tidal Fisheries Advisory Commission; the Virginia Blue Crab Industry Panel and Marine Resources Commission Crab Management Advisory Committee; and the Potomac River Crab Advisory Committee.